Submitted scenarios overview
To access the scenario results, click on Store Transfers in the menu at the right of the screen. Select View Past Executions to access previous scenarios. By clicking on the Submitted tab it will directly filter and show submitted scenarios.
On the screen, all the past executions are displayed as well as a quick overview of all the scenarios. This will show the same information as the normal View past executions tab, but including the Implemented Units and the ASI if each scenario:
- Filters: to be able to select status labels, specific dates, store categories and users
- Execution Details: Status, Scenario ID, author and date of creation, Store Category selected, Transfer Trips & Units and the ESI
- Scenario number: to access to scenario detail by clicking on it
- ESI (Estimated Sales Increase): the ESI per unit and the ESI per trip
- Implemented Units: units that receiving stores have already gotten.
- ASI (Actual Sales Increase): Actual sales increase that was generated from the sales of the units transferred.
By clicking on one scenario id, more details are available.
Reviewing Submitted Scenarios
When entering a particular scenario, at the top of the screen, there is a General Overview. Next to the scenario id, when passing the mouse over the 
, the details of the Parametrization applied during the calculation of the scenario are available.
The metrics highlighted for the submitted scenario are:
- Actual Sales Increase (ASI) (replacing Estimated Sales Increase after execution) and the implemented value. These ones are of the most important KPIs to review, as they show the impact of the implementation of the store transfers and the observed increase in sales.
- Number of Stores finally involved in the transfer according to the selected store category scope.
- Number of Products and SKUs involved in the transfer compared to initial scope.
- Number of Trips as a result of this submitted scenario and the percentage of trips which have been executed.
- Number of units to be moved, indicating the total transfer volume as well as the percentage of units which have been transferred already.
Below this informations, there are shown three implementation bars, that inform about the status of:
- Implemented value: percentage of the initial ESI that was implemented in the destination stores at today’s date.
- Trips: percentage of the trips that were executed at today’s date.
- Units: percentage of the units implemented in the destination stores at today’s dat.
This information gets updated every day during the duration of the Planning Horizon. For more information about this process, visit the Audit process article in this course.
In the bottom half of the screen, the three views used to review the scenario prior submission are displayed: Products (same as for completed scenario), Stores and Trips. But, a new one has appeared: Actual Sales increase.
Exploring Updated Data in Existing Tabs
Stores
In this tab, new information appears in comparison to a non-submitted scenario:
1) Total ESI for the store
2) Number of Incoming trips and units implementation percentage
3) Number of Outgoing trips and units implementation percentage
2 & 3 track implementation rates per store, measuring received and shipped units against the algorithm’s proposed figures. This is also updated daily.
In order to maximize the impact of the store transfer, aim for an implementation rate of at least 70%.
The details can be shared with the stores or downloaded for further analysis by clicking on the Download button. This generates an Excel file (as follows) with all the implementation data from the Stores tab.
Trips
A new Status column indicates whether a trip has been STARTED (at least one unit sent from the origin store and received by the destination) or is left blank if not yet implemented.
Diving into the Actual Sales Increase (ASI) tab
Nextail's transfer recommendation focuses on optimizing stock distribution by reallocating inventory from stores with low demand to those with greater sales potential. This tab enables us to assess the impact of the transfer on sales growth by evaluating its performance.
ℹ️The information on this tab will only be available to review once the Planning horizon set for the scenario has finished.
Estimated Sales Increase
The ESI is an economic measure forecasting the potential benefit of a transfer based on:
➕ Sales growth in the receiving store.
➕ Potential sales from fixed leftovers in the receiving store.
➖ Sales reduction in the sending store.
➖ Cost of broken leftovers in the sending store.
In Nextail, 3 levels of ESI calculation are considered according to different moments of the execution of the scenario and considerations (inclusion of fixing leftovers):
- Theoretical ESI: This ESI value is the snapshot taken at the moment of the submission of the scenario. It is calculated taking into account a perfect implementation, 100% of units moved and sold and all the potential sales generated as well as those generated by fixing the leftovers in the stores included in the transfer.
- Theoretical Implemented ESI: This ESI value is adjusted to the actual units implemented for the scenario.
- Transferred Unit ESI: This ESI narrows the scope of calculation including only the moved units already at destination and ignoring the impact of correcting the leftover situations at destination.
This split of ESI KPIs calculation tends to create the best base of comparison (the most realistic possible) with the Actual Sales Increases helping in evaluating the performance of the store transfer.
Implementation metrics
It shows the implemented units in the scenario—both in absolute numbers and percentages—and the units sold from those implemented.
Leftovers
On the Leftovers card, we can see the potential leftovers fixed in the stores included in the scenario with the transferred units, again shown in value and percentage. Leftovers refer to units that are below the visual rules setup, meaning they were not displayed on the shop floor of the stores. The scenario adjusts for these, considering their potential sales impact.
Actual Sales Increase
ASI or Actual sales increase, is an estimation of the real value that a store transfer brings to the business. The ASI is the difference between the real sales that happened in the destination stores and the hypothetical sales if no units had been moved.
Next to the ESI and Leftovers implementation bars, there is a graph illustrating the Actual Sales Increase of the scenario.
The ASI of the scenario starts being calculated once the inflection point is reached, which is simply a reference marker on the ASI page that indicates the date when 75% of the total implementation progress (as of the current day) was reached.
The blue line represents total sales, and the yellow area highlights sales generated by the transferred units. This data is available in terms of both units and values and can display only implemented scope or the entire scenario scope. The graph also marks the inflection point, which represents the day when 75% of the transferred units have been confirmed as received at the destination stores.
By default, the ASI is calculated on the length of the Planning Horizon (PH).
Understanding Factors Influencing ASI vs ESI
As the ASI or Actual sales increase, is the difference between the real sales and the hypothetical sales if no units were moved, there are several factors that can explain the difference between ESI and ASI:
- Leftovers: ESI value is considering the possible sales of fixed leftovers, whereas ASI only considers real moved units sales.
- Forecast change: The longer the planning horizon, the more likely the forecast will change.
- % of implementation: If not all units were received, ASI will be lower in comparison to ESI, which was calculated based on a 100% implementation..
Let's look at an example where fixing leftovers could impact in having a bigger difference between the ESI and ASI:
We have a store with 2 units initially. These units are not displayed in the store because we need a minimum of 4 units in stock in order to display the product on the shop floor (Visual rules). This would mean that, for the algorithm, the demand forecast of those 2 units was 0, as they were not being exposed and therefore not having any possibility of being sold. Then, Nextail recommends transferring another 3 units to fulfill the demand of the product.
When calculating the demand forecast, we expect to sell 1 unit of sizes XS, S, and M.
Size XS was already available in the store. However, before the transfer, there was no probability of selling it because the store did not have enough units or sizes to display the product. Therefore, the product was in a leftover situation. The ESI value for the scenario will consider the possible sales of the units we are moving and the fixed leftover possible sales.
This difference can be reduced if there are no Visual rules configured or if the Visual Merchandiser Weight is set to 0 as no leftovers are going to be recognized.
In any case, the “Transferred units ESI” will only take into account the units moved and already in destination, removing the sales expected for size XS since this size was already in the store before the transfer.
So for this case, the ASI will consider an increase of 2 units sold, even if we sold 3, as 1 was there before the transfer.
When comparing Estimated Sales Increase (ESI) and Actual Sales Increase (ASI), we see a fundamental shift in how theoretical expectations translate into real outcomes.
|
ESI |
ASI |
|
➕ Sales growth in the receiving store. |
➕ Sales from Implemented units in the receiving stores. ➖Demand forecast in the sending stores (as if the units had not been moved) |
- ESI is a forecasted measure, incorporating expected sales growth, leftover corrections, and potential losses in both sending and receiving stores. It accounts for theoretical benefits and penalisations rather than actual execution.
- ASI reflects real sales impact, measuring actual units sold from the transfer while considering lost sales in the sending store. It removes theoretical elements like leftovers correction and depends entirely on execution quality and store performance.
In summary, by analyzing the execution, impact, and performance of store transfers, we can refine strategies to improve efficiency and optimize sales. Continuous monitoring and adjustment of implementation rates and stock display rules will enhance future store transfer success.
